Tulum inventory hit a 3-year high while Mérida kept compounding at 9.4% YoY. Q2 2026 was the quarter Mexico’s foreign-buyer markets stopped moving as one.
Mexico’s national SHF house price index posted +3.8% YoY in Q2, in line with the disinflation path Banxico has been steering toward.[SHF, Índice SHF de Precios de la Vivienda, 2026-04] Underneath that headline, the gap between markets is the widest we’ve measured. Tulum inventory is up, days on market is up, price growth has compressed to single digits for the first time since 2022. Mérida is on a quiet 9.4% YoY run with days-on-market essentially flat. Same country, very different markets.
The macro backdrop matters: Banxico held the overnight rate at 8.50% through Q2, with TIIE-28 tracking accordingly, and the peso traded in a 17.8–18.4 USD/MXN range for most of the quarter.[Banxico, Tasas y precios de referencia, 2026-04] For US and Canadian buyers funding in dollars, that’s a meaningfully cheaper peso than the 16.50 lows of mid-2024.
What the chart shows
Median 1BR pricing across the four markets foreign buyers transact in, Q2 2026, drawn from AMPI member listings and SHF’s transactional series.[AMPI, Asociación Mexicana de Profesionales Inmobiliarios, 2026-04]
| Market | Median 1BR | Days on market | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida | $165,000 | 88 | +9.4% |
| Puerto Vallarta | $245,000 | 82 | +6.2% |
| Tulum | $285,000 | 74 | +8.0% |
| San Miguel de Allende | $320,000 | 110 | +5.8% |
The Tulum days-on-market figure is misleading without context: inventory grew 34% YoY in Q2. New listings absorbing that volume keep the median DOM lower than the underlying trend would suggest. We expect the Q3 DOM number to widen unless absorption picks up.
Tulum: cooling, not crashing
Inventory hit a 3-year high.[INEGI, Banco de Información Económica, 2026-04] Pre-construction is the bulk of it. The 2024 build cycle is delivering into a market with less foreign-buyer demand than developers underwrote. Resale of completed condos in Aldea Zama is the cleanest part of the market. Pre-construction north of Phase 5 is where buyers are getting hurt.
One Q2 development worth flagging: Quintana Roo’s STR registry enforcement tightened, with the state continuing to layer compliance requirements on hosts on top of the federal lodging tax framework.[SEDETUR Quintana Roo, Registro Estatal de Turismo (RETUR-Q), 2026-04] For investor-buyers, the breakeven on a Tulum rental now requires the registration line item that informal hosts used to skip.
Our take, unchanged from Q1: aggressive offers on completed condos in established master-planned developments. Avoid pre-construction. Skip Region 15.
The US-buyer share of Q2 transactions in Quintana Roo kept drifting down from its 2023 peak, consistent with the broader cross-border slowdown in restricted-zone markets.[AMPI, Estadísticas Inmobiliarias, 2026-04]
Mérida: the slow, steady one
9.4% YoY with days-on-market essentially flat is the kind of market that doesn’t make headlines and tends to be the one cross-border buyers should be in. Inventory is balanced. Centro and García Ginerés are the two neighborhoods we’d shop. North Mérida has run up enough that the case is harder.
The American-retiree influx that’s been building since 2022 shows no sign of slowing. Yucatán’s safety profile and direct US flights from Mérida-Manuel Crescencio Rejón continue to be the drivers.
Puerto Vallarta and San Miguel: range-bound
PV is stable. Hurricane risk priced in. HOA cost growth is real but not market-breaking. We’d shop the resale market, not new construction.
San Miguel is mature and expensive. The 110-day DOM tells you most of what you need to know about velocity at the current price point. Buyers should expect to make multiple offers and to negotiate hard on the second one.
The quarter ahead
The Q3 question is whether Tulum inventory clears or compounds. Our base case is compounds: developer-financed inventory will keep flowing in faster than absorption can clear it. Expect price flexibility in completed-condo segments in Q3 and Q4. The pre-construction segment is weaker than the headline number suggests.
Mérida and PV should track Q2 trajectories. San Miguel stays range-bound.
The next report lands in late July.
What to do with this
If you’re shopping Mexico in Q3, the Tulum cooling is your opening on completed-condo resales and your warning on pre-construction. Mérida is the market that rewards patience, not timing.
For the underlying buyer mechanics (fideicomiso, restricted zone, closing process), start at our Mexico hub. Subscribe to our quarterly intel at /newsletter to get the Q3 report when it drops.